A bunch of friends have asked me why it has been so long since the last blog posting. With the holidays over it is time to get back to talking baseball.
Here are some things that will be water cooler fodder as the hot stove league continues:
• What will the fallout be over the Mitchell Report? My guess is that the players that decided to come clean have already done so. There is the thought that if you remain silent you are essentially admitting guilt. So I fully expect a lawsuit or two to accompany Clemens hiring of the private investigators to find out what really happened. Is it just me or does this remind anyone of OJ Simpson’s quest for Nicole’s killer? My guess is that most of the information in this report is true, however the evidence that brought this information out isn’t exactly convincing. The skeptics among us are asking why so many former Yankees are on the list. It only makes sense since one of the main sources of information was a former Yankee clubhouse guy.
• Where will Johan Santana land? Frankly I am surprised that the deal hasn’t been done yet. I am guessing that the Twins are less than impressed with the offers that they are getting for him. I think that both the Yankee offer of Melky, Hughes and a couple of decent minor leaguers is a strong one. I also think that the Sox offer that included Ellsbury, Lowrie, and a couple of other minor leaguers is a good one. I have no idea why they are reluctant to include Lester in that deal. I don’t think that he is going to be a top of the rotation starter, and landing Santana would be an almost certain ticket to a couple of more world series in the near future. Not including Lester is especially confusing because if they do the deal their rotation will have Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Wakefield and Buchholz to fill the 5 spots.
• On a similar note I have a lot of concern about the current state of the Yankee rotation. They still don’t have an ace. The only guy that might step into that role is Chamberlin, but that is a lot to ask for a guy that has never started a major league game. Wang is a #3 at best, Pettitte is about the same, and the other three spots are likely to be occupied by the aforementioned Chamberlin, Hughes and Kennedy. Mussina is waiting in the wings in case one of the kids doesn’t work out, and he is a shell of what he was just a couple of years ago. I think that this is the biggest hole that the Yanks have. They need an ace. This is why, as much as I like Hughes, I would include him in the deal to get Santana. The other piece to this trade puzzle is that if they include Melky in this deal, that makes Matsui and Damon the every day LF/CF combination. That is not a strong defensive pairing.
I look forward to hearing your comments on these topics and will try to be better about keeping up with posting as the hot stove heats up again.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
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3 comments:
I just don't know how you can say a guy who, in his first two full seasons went 19-6 with a 3.63 and then 19-7 with a 3.70, is a "#3 at best". Just because he had two terrible postseason starts? Just because his go-to pitch is a sinker and not a fastball and because of this he only strikes out half as many guys as a sterotypical "ace" would? The wins and ERA he has posted over his first two full regular seasons override both of those things.
Now to agree with you...haha...The Santana Rumblings...I think both are great offers, and the only reason I can come up with as to why the Twins haven't pulled the trigger yet is that they probably think that the offers won't be getting any worse, and that a contending team in June or July will throw even more in a deal for him. I think it's pretty reasonable for them to wait and see how the first half of the season pans out so long as they believe the offers won't get any worse.
I don't think that the wins are a good barometer of a pitcher's effectiveness. This may seem like blasphemy, but the wins are largely outside of the control of the pitcher. The 19 win seasons have a lot to do with the offense that the Yanks can provide. In his two 19 win seasons he has given up more hits than innings pitched and his strikeout to walk ratio is less than impressive. Those are not the stats of an ace (or even a #2 on a championship ballclub). His ERA has been the one impressive thing about him, but he isn't dominant in my opinion.
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